In the past I have been a subscriber to Newsweek magazine (International Edition). The first time I subscribed it was for a 2 or 3 year deal especially designed for students, at an attractive discount. And then, I let the subscription end, and they sent me offers by post from time-to-time and eventually they sent me a very good offer and I subscribed again.
My last subscription probably ran out a couple of years ago now. However, I received a special offer for an 86% discount, just £19.95 for one year (it says 52 issues, but normally there’s about 2-3 double issues in a year).
It will also offer me something to read on the train other than the free papers. There are, of course, certain aspects of Newsweek’s writing and article style that I do not like. As I recall, it makes no effort to conform to British English; and there’s a definite US-bias in much of the reporting. Too many of the articles are about the USA, considering I am getting the UK International Edition. However, the publication is reasonably liberal and as unbiased as can be expected of any magazine.
Newsweek also (about once a month or so) has an excellent Special Report on something. I would imagine 2008’s themes will be Global Warming, China, US Elections, and more on the fall-out from the US sub-prime mortgage market.
Environment
Met Office Model
- click to view
Even though 2008 is set to be the coolest year since 2000, the trend up to 2007’s data is that 11 of the warmest years on record (since 1850) have been in the past 13 years.1) This means that there is strong evidence for Global Warming.
The Met Office's models seem to suggest that overall Global temperatures may go down slightly until 2010 and will be at 2006/2007 levels again in 2012. However, the trend for the Northern Hemisphere shows less fluxation than the Southern Hemisphere, and will only have a small drop around 2007-2009, and by 2012 will be about 0.6ºC warmer than the 2000 average, and 0.3°C warmer than 2006/2007.
Of course all changes are localised too. Hence, some places may see smaller rises than others. Many people may even welcome a slightly warmer world. The UK suffered an increase death toll last winter of about 22000 people2), and milder winters can only be beneficial to our general health and work productivity.
Economics
The fall-out from the US sub-prime mortgage crisis has hit the British banking network quite hard. Northern Rock is the most obvious major casualty, but even HSBC has had liabilities of over £7 billion. The Treasury and Bank of England have been criticised over their handling of Northern Rock and the wider crisis. However, businesses that grow too quickly are always liable to fall down flat. And it is not (or should not be) the responsibility of government to rescue a private company.
Perhaps, incorrectly, the biggest topic in the world of finance is $100 oil. In January 2007 oil was trading at $50, so it has doubled in one year. I do not think oil is that important to the overall picture of global finances. However, oil wealth does allow a nation to ignore the development of stable industries and creates problems for global capital flows. Norway has effectively become the richest country in the world per capita due to its North Sea oil and gas revenues. Norway has benefited from free trade with the EEC countries, and built up vast reserves of national wealth.
There is a threat of recession in 2008. I am not too worried about this threat. I think my job - along with most of my family’s - is secure. I also think that a slight downturn may bring about UK policy changes on social security and pensions that will have long-term beneficial effects. A small fall in house prices, followed by a period of stability or very small growth, would also bring property back within reach for many people. Plus, many economists agree that interest rates are too high in the UK. A fall of 0.5 points would keep mortgages affordable, despite the increased premiums on credit, and make the Pound Sterling lose some strength and make exports more attractive - reducing our trade deficit (plus protecting many UK jobs).
If there is a fall in spending it may be for expensive electrical goods (watch out for more profit warnings from PC World, Dixons etc) and foreign holidays. Which should not overly bother us - especially if it means Britons buy less goods on shopping trips to Dubai, New York, and France.